Santos Laguna 3–1 Toluca: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Santos Laguna

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Toluca

F. Otero 53'

E. Aguirre 17', 4'

A. Canelo 68'

4/19/2021

Liga MX · Clausura - 15Estadio Nuevo Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Santos Laguna46%

×Draw25%

Toluca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos LagunaExpected goals in this matchToluca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.21

Santos Laguna

1.59

Toluca

1.21

Santos Laguna creates 31% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 149 away

1.66

creates per match

1.24

1.18

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Santos Laguna

1.66

Toluca

1.24

allows per match

Santos Laguna

1.18

Toluca

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Toluca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw

71%

Santos Laguna or Toluca

75%

Draw or Toluca

54%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

24%

Toluca wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

80%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

47%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

21%

Toluca 1+ goals

70%

Toluca 2+ goals

34%

Toluca 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

61%

Toluca (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.18 · 145 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.66 + Toluca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.59

Toluca attack 1.24 + Santos Laguna defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Santos Laguna scores more

46%

level

25%

Toluca scores more

29%

Santos Laguna at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

E. Aguirre

Santos Laguna · M

8.6

Match Events

4'

17'

30'

45'

45'

53'

59'

I. Jeraldino← S. Muñóz

61'

E. Triverio← M. Estrada

62'

R. López← R. Salinas

68'

A. Canelo↳ R. Sambueza

71'

I. Govea← J. Isijara

72'

A. Ibargüen← E. Preciado

73'

D. Andrade← O. Campos

75'

I. Violante← P. Yrizar

80'

Enrique Triverio

87'

Diego

90'

Claudio Baeza

90'

J. Rodríguez← J. Vázquez

90'

Ó. Ortega← M. Barbieri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantosToluca

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots16

4Corners3

16Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots16

7On Target5

6Off Target6

2Blocked5

10Inside Box10

5Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

334Total Passes403

238Accurate Passes295

71%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0