Santo André U20 vs Velo Clube U20

Santo André U20

Preview

18:00

Velo Clube U20

9/12/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 15

39%

Santo André U20

model favours

39%25%36%

Santo André U20 score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

57%

over 2.5 goals

60%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Santo André U2039%

×Draw25%

Velo Clube U2036%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santo André U20Expected goals in this matchVelo Clube U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.45

Santo André U20

1.51

Velo Clube U20

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

1.63

creates per match

0.95

1.95

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Santo André U20

1.63

Velo Clube U20

0.95

allows per match

Santo André U20

1.95

Velo Clube U20

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santo André U20+0.00on par

Velo Clube U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santo André U20 ↓

Velo Clube U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Santo André U20 or draw

64%

Santo André U20 or Velo Clube U20

75%

Draw or Velo Clube U20

61%

Winning margin

Santo André U20 wins by 2+

19%

Velo Clube U20 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Santo André U20 1+ goals

78%

Santo André U20 2+ goals

44%

Santo André U20 3+ goals

19%

Velo Clube U20 1+ goals

77%

Velo Clube U20 2+ goals

42%

Velo Clube U20 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Santo André U20 (draw refunded)

52%

Velo Clube U20 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santo André U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Velo Clube U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santo André U20 attack 1.63 + Velo Clube U20 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.51

Velo Clube U20 attack 0.95 + Santo André U20 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santo André U20 scores more

39%

level

25%

Velo Clube U20 scores more

36%

Santo André U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Santo André U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Santo André U20 sit 12, Velo Clube U20 38 in the table
Santo André U20 and Velo Clube U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

WWDLL

U20

LDDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff