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Santo André U20 vs São Caetano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Santo André U20
Santo André U20
Preview
18:00
São Caetano U20
São Caetano U20
8/21/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 13
38%
Santo André U20
model favours
38%24%38%

Santo André U20 score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Santo André U2038%
×Draw24%
São Caetano U2038%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santo André U20
1.51
São Caetano U20
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Santo André U20
1.63
São Caetano U20
1.05

allows per match

Santo André U20
1.95
São Caetano U20
1.40

finishing

Santo André U20+0.00on par
São Caetano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santo André U20 ↓

São Caetano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Santo André U20 or draw
62%
Santo André U20 or São Caetano U20
76%
Draw or São Caetano U20
62%

Winning margin

Santo André U20 wins by 2+
18%
São Caetano U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Santo André U20 1+ goals
78%
Santo André U20 2+ goals
44%
Santo André U20 3+ goals
19%
São Caetano U20 1+ goals
78%
São Caetano U20 2+ goals
44%
São Caetano U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Santo André U20 (draw refunded)
50%
São Caetano U20 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santo André U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

São Caetano U20 away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santo André U20 attack 1.63 + São Caetano U20 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.51

São Caetano U20 attack 1.05 + Santo André U20 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Santo André U20 scores more
38%
level
24%
São Caetano U20 scores more
38%

Santo André U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Santo André U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • São Caetano U20 score first in only 30% of matches
  • Santo André U20 sit 12, São Caetano U20 26 in the table
  • Santo André U20 and São Caetano U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
WWDLL
U20
LWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santo André U20 face São Caetano U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with Santo André U20 hosting São Caetano U20. Match starts August 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.