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Santiago Wanderers vs Barnechea — Primera B 2018

Santiago Wanderers
Santiago Wanderers
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Barnechea
Barnechea
5/6/2022Primera BPrimera B · Round 13Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Santiago Wanderers48%
×Draw25%
Barnechea26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santiago Wanderers
1.56
Barnechea
1.08

Santiago Wanderers creates 44% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 95 away

creates per match

Santiago Wanderers
1.61
Barnechea
1.09

allows per match

Santiago Wanderers
1.08
Barnechea
1.52

finishing

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par
Barnechea+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Wanderers ↓

Barnechea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Santiago Wanderers or draw
74%
Santiago Wanderers or Barnechea
75%
Draw or Barnechea
52%

Winning margin

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+
25%
Barnechea wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals
79%
Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals
46%
Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals
21%
Barnechea 1+ goals
66%
Barnechea 2+ goals
29%
Barnechea 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)
65%
Barnechea (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Wanderers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.08 · 92 matches

Barnechea away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.61 + Barnechea defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Barnechea attack 1.09 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Santiago Wanderers scores more
48%
level
25%
Barnechea scores more
26%

Santiago Wanderers at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Santiago Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santiago Wanderers vs Barnechea

Barnechea beat Santiago Wanderers 3-1 in Primera B on May 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander in Valparaíso.