Santanyí 1–1 San Rafael: Result & Stats

Santanyí

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

San Rafael

9/28/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 6Estadio Municipal de Santanyí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Santanyí50%

×Draw26%

San Rafael23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantanyíExpected goals in this matchSan Rafael

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.93

Santanyí

1.50

San Rafael

0.93

Santanyí creates 61% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 47 away

1.48

creates per match

0.94

0.92

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Santanyí

1.48

San Rafael

0.94

allows per match

Santanyí

0.92

San Rafael

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santanyí+0.00on par

San Rafael+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santanyí ↓

San Rafael →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Santanyí or draw

77%

Santanyí or San Rafael

74%

Draw or San Rafael

50%

Winning margin

Santanyí wins by 2+

26%

San Rafael wins by 2+

Team goals

Santanyí 1+ goals

78%

Santanyí 2+ goals

44%

Santanyí 3+ goals

19%

San Rafael 1+ goals

61%

San Rafael 2+ goals

24%

San Rafael 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Santanyí (draw refunded)

68%

San Rafael (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santanyí at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 112 matches

San Rafael away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santanyí attack 1.48 + San Rafael defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

San Rafael attack 0.94 + Santanyí defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Santanyí scores more

50%

level

26%

San Rafael scores more

23%

Santanyí at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santanyí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff