Santanyí 0–1 Platges Calvià: Result & Stats

Santanyí

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Platges Calvià

1/9/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 11Estadio Municipal de Santanyí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Santanyí40%

×Draw29%

Platges Calvià31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantanyíExpected goals in this matchPlatges Calvià

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.02

Santanyí

1.21

Platges Calvià

1.02

Santanyí creates 19% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 112 away

1.48

creates per match

1.13

0.92

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Santanyí

1.48

Platges Calvià

1.13

allows per match

Santanyí

0.92

Platges Calvià

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santanyí+0.00on par

Platges Calvià+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santanyí ↓

Platges Calvià →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Santanyí or draw

69%

Santanyí or Platges Calvià

71%

Draw or Platges Calvià

60%

Winning margin

Santanyí wins by 2+

17%

Platges Calvià wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Santanyí 1+ goals

70%

Santanyí 2+ goals

34%

Santanyí 3+ goals

12%

Platges Calvià 1+ goals

64%

Platges Calvià 2+ goals

27%

Platges Calvià 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Santanyí (draw refunded)

57%

Platges Calvià (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santanyí at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 112 matches

Platges Calvià away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.94 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santanyí attack 1.48 + Platges Calvià defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.21

Platges Calvià attack 1.13 + Santanyí defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Santanyí scores more

40%

level

29%

Platges Calvià scores more

31%

Santanyí at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Santanyí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff