Santanyí 2–2 Llosetense: Result & Stats

Santanyí

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Llosetense

8/31/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2Estadio Municipal de Santanyí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Santanyí44%

×Draw27%

Llosetense30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantanyíExpected goals in this matchLlosetense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.11

Santanyí

1.41

Llosetense

1.11

Santanyí creates 27% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 116 away

1.48

creates per match

1.31

0.92

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Santanyí

1.48

Llosetense

1.31

allows per match

Santanyí

0.92

Llosetense

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santanyí+0.00on par

Llosetense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santanyí ↓

Llosetense →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Santanyí or draw

70%

Santanyí or Llosetense

73%

Draw or Llosetense

56%

Winning margin

Santanyí wins by 2+

21%

Llosetense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Santanyí 1+ goals

76%

Santanyí 2+ goals

41%

Santanyí 3+ goals

17%

Llosetense 1+ goals

67%

Llosetense 2+ goals

30%

Llosetense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Santanyí (draw refunded)

60%

Llosetense (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santanyí at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 112 matches

Llosetense away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santanyí attack 1.48 + Llosetense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.41

Llosetense attack 1.31 + Santanyí defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Santanyí scores more

44%

level

27%

Llosetense scores more

30%

Santanyí at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Santanyí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff