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Santanyí vs Constància — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Santanyí
Santanyí
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Constància
Constància
1/13/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 16Estadio Municipal de Santanyí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Santanyí42%
×Draw28%
Constància30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santanyí
1.26
Constància
1.03

Santanyí creates 22% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 115 away

creates per match

Santanyí
1.48
Constància
1.15

allows per match

Santanyí
0.92
Constància
1.04

finishing

Santanyí+0.00on par
Constància+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santanyí ↓

Constància →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Santanyí or draw
70%
Santanyí or Constància
72%
Draw or Constància
58%

Winning margin

Santanyí wins by 2+
19%
Constància wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Santanyí 1+ goals
72%
Santanyí 2+ goals
36%
Santanyí 3+ goals
13%
Constància 1+ goals
64%
Constància 2+ goals
28%
Constància 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Santanyí (draw refunded)
58%
Constància (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santanyí at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 112 matches

Constància away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santanyí attack 1.48 + Constància defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.26

Constància attack 1.15 + Santanyí defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Santanyí scores more
42%
level
28%
Constància scores more
30%

Santanyí at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Santanyí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Santanyí 1–0 Constància

Santanyí beat Constància 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Santanyí in Mallorca.