Santamarina 1–1 Sansinena: Result & Stats

Santamarina

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sansinena

3/11/2023

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 1Estadio Municipal General San Martín de Tandil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Santamarina51%

×Draw30%

Sansinena20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantamarinaExpected goals in this matchSansinena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.67

Santamarina

1.26

Sansinena

0.67

Santamarina creates 88% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 85 away

1.24

creates per match

0.76

0.58

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Santamarina

1.24

Sansinena

0.76

allows per match

Santamarina

0.58

Sansinena

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santamarina+0.00on par

Sansinena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santamarina ↓

Sansinena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Santamarina or draw

80%

Santamarina or Sansinena

70%

Draw or Sansinena

49%

Winning margin

Santamarina wins by 2+

23%

Sansinena wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Santamarina 1+ goals

72%

Santamarina 2+ goals

36%

Santamarina 3+ goals

13%

Sansinena 1+ goals

49%

Sansinena 2+ goals

15%

Sansinena 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Santamarina (draw refunded)

72%

Sansinena (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santamarina at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.58 · 55 matches

Sansinena away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santamarina attack 1.24 + Sansinena defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.26

Sansinena attack 0.76 + Santamarina defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Santamarina scores more

51%

level

30%

Sansinena scores more

20%

Santamarina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Santamarina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff