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Santa Úrsula vs Marino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Marino
Marino
1/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 22Estadio Argelio Tabares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Santa Úrsula50%
×Draw26%
Marino23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Úrsula
1.48
Marino
0.92

Santa Úrsula creates 61% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 95 away

creates per match

Santa Úrsula
1.33
Marino
1.03

allows per match

Santa Úrsula
0.80
Marino
1.64

finishing

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par
Marino+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Úrsula ↓

Marino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Santa Úrsula or draw
77%
Santa Úrsula or Marino
74%
Draw or Marino
50%

Winning margin

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
25%
Marino wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
77%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
43%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
19%
Marino 1+ goals
60%
Marino 2+ goals
23%
Marino 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
68%
Marino (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Úrsula at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.80 · 92 matches

Marino away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.64 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Úrsula attack 1.33 + Marino defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Marino attack 1.03 + Santa Úrsula defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Santa Úrsula scores more
50%
level
26%
Marino scores more
23%

Santa Úrsula at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santa Úrsula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Santa Úrsula 1–0 Marino

Santa Úrsula beat Marino 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 25, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Argelio Tabares in Santa Úrsula.