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Santa Úrsula vs La Cuadra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
La Cuadra
La Cuadra
10/19/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 9Estadio Argelio Tabares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Santa Úrsula53%
×Draw25%
La Cuadra22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Úrsula
1.57
La Cuadra
0.91

Santa Úrsula creates 73% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 75 away

creates per match

Santa Úrsula
1.33
La Cuadra
1.01

allows per match

Santa Úrsula
0.80
La Cuadra
1.81

finishing

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par
La Cuadra+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Úrsula ↓

La Cuadra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Santa Úrsula or draw
78%
Santa Úrsula or La Cuadra
75%
Draw or La Cuadra
47%

Winning margin

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
28%
La Cuadra wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
79%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
46%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
21%
La Cuadra 1+ goals
60%
La Cuadra 2+ goals
23%
La Cuadra 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
71%
La Cuadra (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Úrsula at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.80 · 92 matches

La Cuadra away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.81 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Úrsula attack 1.33 + La Cuadra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.57

La Cuadra attack 1.01 + Santa Úrsula defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Santa Úrsula scores more
53%
level
25%
La Cuadra scores more
22%

Santa Úrsula at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Santa Úrsula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Úrsula vs La Cuadra

Santa Úrsula and La Cuadra drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Argelio Tabares in Santa Úrsula.