Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Santa Úrsula vs Gran Tarajal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Gran Tarajal
Gran Tarajal
1/4/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 19Estadio Argelio Tabares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Santa Úrsula52%
×Draw26%
Gran Tarajal22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Úrsula
1.54
Gran Tarajal
0.89

Santa Úrsula creates 73% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 75 away

creates per match

Santa Úrsula
1.33
Gran Tarajal
0.97

allows per match

Santa Úrsula
0.80
Gran Tarajal
1.75

finishing

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par
Gran Tarajal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Úrsula ↓

Gran Tarajal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Santa Úrsula or draw
78%
Santa Úrsula or Gran Tarajal
74%
Draw or Gran Tarajal
48%

Winning margin

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
27%
Gran Tarajal wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
79%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
45%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
20%
Gran Tarajal 1+ goals
59%
Gran Tarajal 2+ goals
22%
Gran Tarajal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
71%
Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Úrsula at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.80 · 92 matches

Gran Tarajal away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Úrsula attack 1.33 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Gran Tarajal attack 0.97 + Santa Úrsula defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Santa Úrsula scores more
52%
level
26%
Gran Tarajal scores more
22%

Santa Úrsula at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Santa Úrsula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Úrsula vs Gran Tarajal

Santa Úrsula beat Gran Tarajal 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 4, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Argelio Tabares in Santa Úrsula.