Santa Tecla 0–1 FAS: Result & Stats

Santa Tecla

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FAS

5/16/2021

Primera Division · Clausura - Semi-finalsEstadio Las Delicias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Santa Tecla35%

×Draw27%

FAS39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa TeclaExpected goals in this matchFAS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.33

Santa Tecla

1.24

FAS

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 156 away

1.31

creates per match

1.28

1.38

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Santa Tecla

1.31

FAS

1.28

allows per match

Santa Tecla

1.38

FAS

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Tecla+0.00on par

FAS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Tecla ↓

FAS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Santa Tecla or draw

61%

Santa Tecla or FAS

73%

Draw or FAS

65%

Winning margin

Santa Tecla wins by 2+

15%

FAS wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Santa Tecla 1+ goals

71%

Santa Tecla 2+ goals

35%

Santa Tecla 3+ goals

13%

FAS 1+ goals

74%

FAS 2+ goals

38%

FAS 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Santa Tecla (draw refunded)

47%

FAS (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Tecla at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 98 matches

FAS away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Tecla attack 1.31 + FAS defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.24

FAS attack 1.28 + Santa Tecla defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santa Tecla scores more

35%

level

27%

FAS scores more

39%

FAS at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FAS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff