Santa Tecla 1–4 Chalatenango: Result & Stats

Santa Tecla

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

Chalatenango

4/4/2021

Primera Division · Clausura - 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Las Delicias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Santa Tecla43%

×Draw25%

Chalatenango32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa TeclaExpected goals in this matchChalatenango

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.28

Santa Tecla

1.52

Chalatenango

1.28

Santa Tecla creates 19% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 74 away

1.31

creates per match

1.18

1.38

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Santa Tecla

1.31

Chalatenango

1.18

allows per match

Santa Tecla

1.38

Chalatenango

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Tecla+0.00on par

Chalatenango+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Tecla ↓

Chalatenango →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Santa Tecla or draw

68%

Santa Tecla or Chalatenango

75%

Draw or Chalatenango

57%

Winning margin

Santa Tecla wins by 2+

21%

Chalatenango wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Santa Tecla 1+ goals

78%

Santa Tecla 2+ goals

45%

Santa Tecla 3+ goals

20%

Chalatenango 1+ goals

72%

Chalatenango 2+ goals

37%

Chalatenango 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Santa Tecla (draw refunded)

57%

Chalatenango (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Tecla at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 98 matches

Chalatenango away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.74 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Tecla attack 1.31 + Chalatenango defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Chalatenango attack 1.18 + Santa Tecla defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Santa Tecla scores more

43%

level

25%

Chalatenango scores more

32%

Santa Tecla at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Santa Tecla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff