Santa Rita 1–0 Académica do Lobito: Result & Stats

Santa Rita

FT

1 – 0

Académica do Lobito

6/16/2021

Girabola · Round 20Estádio 4 de Janeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Santa Rita39%

×Draw31%

Académica do Lobito30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa RitaExpected goals in this matchAcadémica do Lobito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.88

Santa Rita

1.04

Académica do Lobito

0.88

Santa Rita creates 18% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 100 away

0.77

creates per match

0.68

1.07

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Santa Rita

0.77

Académica do Lobito

0.68

allows per match

Santa Rita

1.07

Académica do Lobito

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Rita+0.00on par

Académica do Lobito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Rita ↓

Académica do Lobito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Santa Rita or draw

70%

Santa Rita or Académica do Lobito

69%

Draw or Académica do Lobito

61%

Winning margin

Santa Rita wins by 2+

15%

Académica do Lobito wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Santa Rita 1+ goals

65%

Santa Rita 2+ goals

28%

Santa Rita 3+ goals

9%

Académica do Lobito 1+ goals

59%

Académica do Lobito 2+ goals

22%

Académica do Lobito 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Santa Rita (draw refunded)

56%

Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Rita at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

Académica do Lobito away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Rita attack 0.77 + Académica do Lobito defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.04

Académica do Lobito attack 0.68 + Santa Rita defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santa Rita scores more

39%

level

31%

Académica do Lobito scores more

30%

Santa Rita at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Santa Rita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff