Santa Lucía vs Malacateco — Liga Nacional 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 82+ matches
Santa Lucía49%
Malacateco24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Santa Lucía creates 59% more chances
Season form · 82 home / 145 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Santa Lucía ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Santa Lucía at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.01 · 82 matches
Malacateco away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.62 · 145 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Santa Lucía attack 1.23 + Malacateco defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.43
Malacateco attack 0.78 + Santa Lucía defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.90
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Santa Lucía at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Santa Lucía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Santa Lucía host Malacateco on Sunday, 23 February 2020 at 18:00. The match is part of the Liga Nacional 2019/2020 season.
Liga Nacional: Santa Lucía 1–0 Malacateco
Santa Lucía beat Malacateco 1-0 in Liga Nacional on February 23, 2020.
The match was played at Estadio Municipal Santa Lucía Cotzumalguapa in Cotzumalguapa.