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Santa Lucía vs Antigua GFC — Liga Nacional 2019

Santa Lucía
Santa Lucía
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Antigua GFC
Antigua GFC
1/29/2022Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 3Estadio Municipal Santa Lucía Cotzumalguapa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Santa Lucía42%
×Draw28%
Antigua GFC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Lucía
1.29
Antigua GFC
1.06

Santa Lucía creates 22% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 156 away

creates per match

Santa Lucía
1.23
Antigua GFC
1.11

allows per match

Santa Lucía
1.01
Antigua GFC
1.35

finishing

Santa Lucía+0.00on par
Antigua GFC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Lucía ↓

Antigua GFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Santa Lucía or draw
69%
Santa Lucía or Antigua GFC
72%
Draw or Antigua GFC
58%

Winning margin

Santa Lucía wins by 2+
19%
Antigua GFC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Santa Lucía 1+ goals
72%
Santa Lucía 2+ goals
37%
Santa Lucía 3+ goals
14%
Antigua GFC 1+ goals
65%
Antigua GFC 2+ goals
29%
Antigua GFC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Santa Lucía (draw refunded)
58%
Antigua GFC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Lucía at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.01 · 82 matches

Antigua GFC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.35 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Lucía attack 1.23 + Antigua GFC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Antigua GFC attack 1.11 + Santa Lucía defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Santa Lucía scores more
42%
level
28%
Antigua GFC scores more
31%

Santa Lucía at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Santa Lucía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Lucía vs Antigua GFC

Antigua GFC beat Santa Lucía 1-0 in Liga Nacional on January 29, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Santa Lucía Cotzumalguapa in Cotzumalguapa.