Santa Fe 0–1 Once Caldas: Result & Stats

Santa Fe

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Once Caldas

11/8/2023

Primera A · Clausura - 20Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Santa Fe50%

×Draw29%

Once Caldas21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa FeExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.75

Santa Fe

1.31

Once Caldas

0.75

Santa Fe creates 75% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.40

creates per match

0.92

0.58

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Santa Fe

1.40

Once Caldas

0.92

allows per match

Santa Fe

0.58

Once Caldas

1.23

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Santa Fe-0.23scores less

Once Caldas+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Fe ↓

Once Caldas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Santa Fe or draw

79%

Santa Fe or Once Caldas

71%

Draw or Once Caldas

50%

Winning margin

Santa Fe wins by 2+

24%

Once Caldas wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Santa Fe 1+ goals

73%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

38%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

14%

Once Caldas 1+ goals

53%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

17%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

70%

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Fe at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.58 · 6 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Fe attack 1.40 + Once Caldas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Once Caldas attack 0.92 + Santa Fe defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Santa Fe scores more

50%

level

29%

Once Caldas scores more

21%

Santa Fe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff