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Santa Fe vs Huila — Primera A 2018

Santa Fe
Santa Fe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Huila
Huila
3/17/2018Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 9Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Santa Fe54%
×Draw28%
Huila18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Fe
1.38
Huila
0.67

Santa Fe creates 106% more chances

Season form · 183 home / 70 away

creates per match

Santa Fe
1.39
Huila
0.53

allows per match

Santa Fe
0.81
Huila
1.36

finishing

Santa Fe+0.00on par
Huila+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Fe ↓

Huila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Santa Fe or draw
82%
Santa Fe or Huila
72%
Draw or Huila
46%

Winning margin

Santa Fe wins by 2+
27%
Huila wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Santa Fe 1+ goals
75%
Santa Fe 2+ goals
40%
Santa Fe 3+ goals
16%
Huila 1+ goals
49%
Huila 2+ goals
15%
Huila 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Santa Fe (draw refunded)
75%
Huila (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Fe at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.81 · 183 matches

Huila away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.36 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Fe attack 1.39 + Huila defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Huila attack 0.53 + Santa Fe defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Santa Fe scores more
54%
level
28%
Huila scores more
18%

Santa Fe at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santa Fe 0 – 1 Huila

Huila beat Santa Fe 1-0 in Primera A on March 17, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin in Bogota.