Santa Fe 2–0 Fortaleza FC: Result & Stats

Santa Fe

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fortaleza FC

3/9/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 11Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Santa Fe49%

×Draw28%

Fortaleza FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa FeExpected goals in this matchFortaleza FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.84

Santa Fe

1.35

Fortaleza FC

0.84

Santa Fe creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.40

creates per match

1.11

0.58

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Santa Fe

1.40

Fortaleza FC

1.11

allows per match

Santa Fe

0.58

Fortaleza FC

1.31

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Santa Fe-0.23scores less

Fortaleza FC+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Fe ↓

Fortaleza FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Santa Fe or draw

77%

Santa Fe or Fortaleza FC

72%

Draw or Fortaleza FC

51%

Winning margin

Santa Fe wins by 2+

23%

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Santa Fe 1+ goals

74%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

39%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

15%

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

57%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

21%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

68%

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Fe at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.58 · 6 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Fe attack 1.40 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Fortaleza FC attack 1.11 + Santa Fe defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Santa Fe scores more

49%

level

28%

Fortaleza FC scores more

23%

Santa Fe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff