Santa Fe 0–2 Atletico Nacional: Result & Stats

Santa Fe

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Nacional

7/28/2018

Primera A · Clausura - 2Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Santa Fe42%

×Draw28%

Atletico Nacional30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa FeExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.02

Santa Fe

1.25

Atletico Nacional

1.02

Santa Fe creates 23% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

1.40

creates per match

1.15

0.89

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Santa Fe

1.40

Atletico Nacional

1.15

allows per match

Santa Fe

0.89

Atletico Nacional

1.10

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Santa Fe+0.39scores more

Atletico Nacional+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Fe ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Santa Fe or draw

70%

Santa Fe or Atletico Nacional

72%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

58%

Winning margin

Santa Fe wins by 2+

18%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Santa Fe 1+ goals

71%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

36%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

13%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

64%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

27%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

58%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Fe at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.89 · 14 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.10 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Fe attack 1.40 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atletico Nacional attack 1.15 + Santa Fe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Santa Fe scores more

42%

level

28%

Atletico Nacional scores more

30%

Santa Fe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff