Santa Fe 2–0 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Santa Fe

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

America de Cali

J. Aja 55'

J. Enamorado 10'

3/15/2023

Primera A · Apertura - 8Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Santa Fe49%

×Draw28%

America de Cali23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa FeExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.81

Santa Fe

1.32

America de Cali

0.81

Santa Fe creates 63% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.41

creates per match

0.79

0.83

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Santa Fe

1.41

America de Cali

0.79

allows per match

Santa Fe

0.83

America de Cali

1.24

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Fe+0.17scores more

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Fe ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Santa Fe or draw

77%

Santa Fe or America de Cali

72%

Draw or America de Cali

51%

Winning margin

Santa Fe wins by 2+

23%

America de Cali wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Santa Fe 1+ goals

73%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

38%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

15%

America de Cali 1+ goals

56%

America de Cali 2+ goals

19%

America de Cali 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

68%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Fe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.24 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Fe attack 1.41 + America de Cali defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

America de Cali attack 0.79 + Santa Fe defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Santa Fe scores more

49%

level

28%

America de Cali scores more

23%

Santa Fe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Enamorado

Santa Fe · M

8.3

Match Events

-5'

John García

10'

J. Enamorado

18'

H. Rodallega← W. Morelo

23'

31'

41'

45+3'

55'

57'

58'

A. Sarmiento← C. Barrios

58'

A. Ramos← L. Sánchez

77'

J. González← W. De La Rosa

78'

C. Marrugo← F. Sambueza

78'

L. Mosquera← L. Paz

84'

J. Barboza← H. Rivera

84'

N. Moreno← J. Enamorado

85'

D. Quiñones← E. Mena

85'

D. Mosquera← F. Suárez

90'

Jersson González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantaAmerica

Overview

45%Possession55%

16Total Shots11

7Corners4

14Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots11

10On Target3

4Off Target4

2Blocked4

10Inside Box5

6Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

321Total Passes389

237Accurate Passes303

74%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

14Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1