Santa Cruz 1–1 Botafogo PB: Result & Stats

Santa Cruz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Botafogo PB

Charles 90+5'

Kelvin 90'

7/14/2019

Serie C · Round 12Estádio Jóse do Rego Maciel (Recife, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Santa Cruz43%

×Draw29%

Botafogo PB28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa CruzExpected goals in this matchBotafogo PB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.95

Santa Cruz

1.24

Botafogo PB

0.95

Santa Cruz creates 31% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 88 away

1.37

creates per match

0.86

1.04

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Santa Cruz

1.37

Botafogo PB

0.86

allows per match

Santa Cruz

1.04

Botafogo PB

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Botafogo PB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz ↓

Botafogo PB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Santa Cruz or draw

72%

Santa Cruz or Botafogo PB

71%

Draw or Botafogo PB

57%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

19%

Botafogo PB wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

71%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

35%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

13%

Botafogo PB 1+ goals

61%

Botafogo PB 2+ goals

25%

Botafogo PB 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

60%

Botafogo PB (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.04 · 46 matches

Botafogo PB away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz attack 1.37 + Botafogo PB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

Botafogo PB attack 0.86 + Santa Cruz defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Santa Cruz scores more

43%

level

29%

Botafogo PB scores more

28%

Santa Cruz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Neílson← Itaqui

46'

Jailson← Daniel Costa

46'

Misael← Augusto

61'

Juninho← Marcos Vinicius

74'

Kelvin← Serginho

80'

Warley← Dudu

90'

Kelvin

90+5'

Charles

Santa

Botafogo

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Milton Mendes

46'▲Jailson←▼Daniel Costa

46'▲Misael←▼Augusto

80'▲Warley←▼Dudu

Santa Cruz substitutes

JailsonMisaelWarleyAhlfDiasRéQueirozLucasMattosVitãoAlves

Manager: Evaristo Piza

41'▲Neílson←▼Itaqui

61'▲Juninho←▼Marcos Vinicius

74'▲Kelvin←▼Serginho

Botafogo PB substitutes

NeílsonJuninhoKelvinGuilhermeDicoDonatoErivéltonHiagoWellingtonGoianoElvinho