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Santa Clara vs Nacional — Taça de Portugal 2018

Santa Clara
Santa Clara
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nacional
Nacional
1/11/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 16Estádio de São Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Santa Clara39%
×Draw22%
Nacional39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Clara
1.78
Nacional
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Santa Clara
1.67
Nacional
2.22

allows per match

Santa Clara
1.33
Nacional
1.89

finishing

Santa Clara+0.00on par
Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Clara ↓

Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Santa Clara or draw
61%
Santa Clara or Nacional
78%
Draw or Nacional
61%

Winning margin

Santa Clara wins by 2+
20%
Nacional wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Santa Clara 1+ goals
83%
Santa Clara 2+ goals
53%
Santa Clara 3+ goals
26%
Nacional 1+ goals
83%
Nacional 2+ goals
53%
Nacional 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Santa Clara (draw refunded)
50%
Nacional (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Clara at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Nacional away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Clara attack 1.67 + Nacional defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.78

Nacional attack 2.22 + Santa Clara defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santa Clara scores more
39%
level
22%
Nacional scores more
39%

Santa Clara at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Santa Clara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Santa Clara 0–0 Nacional

Santa Clara and Nacional drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on January 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio de São Miguel in Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores.