Santa Clara vs Arouca — Friendlies Clubs 2026
Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
Santa Clara score first in only 15% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Santa Clara44%
Arouca24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Santa Clara creates 52% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under73
- Over27
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No66
- Yes34
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Santa Clara ↓
Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Santa Clara at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches
Arouca away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Santa Clara attack 1.67 + Arouca defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.08
Arouca attack 0.75 + Santa Clara defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.71
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Santa Clara at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Santa Clara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Arouca score first in only 30% of matches
- 35% of Santa Clara’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
- 65% of Santa Clara’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
- Both teams score in only 35% of Santa Clara’s matches
- Arouca matches are rarely goalless — only 3.8% end 0-0
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
5 previous meetingsSanta Clara host Arouca on Saturday, 25 July 2026 at 10:00. The match is part of the Friendlies Clubs 2026/2027 season.
Santa Clara face Arouca (Friendlies Clubs)
Friendlies Clubs returns with Santa Clara hosting Arouca. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.