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Santa Ana vs Turrialba Fc — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Santa Ana
Santa Ana
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Turrialba Fc
Turrialba Fc
10/7/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 15Estadio Rafael Bolaños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Santa Ana61%
×Draw21%
Turrialba Fc18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Ana
2.05
Turrialba Fc
1.02

Santa Ana creates 101% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 101 away

creates per match

Santa Ana
1.72
Turrialba Fc
0.86

allows per match

Santa Ana
1.18
Turrialba Fc
2.38

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par
Turrialba Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

Turrialba Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw
82%
Santa Ana or Turrialba Fc
79%
Draw or Turrialba Fc
39%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+
37%
Turrialba Fc wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals
87%
Santa Ana 2+ goals
61%
Santa Ana 3+ goals
33%
Turrialba Fc 1+ goals
64%
Turrialba Fc 2+ goals
27%
Turrialba Fc 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)
77%
Turrialba Fc (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.18 · 109 matches

Turrialba Fc away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.72 + Turrialba Fc defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.05

Turrialba Fc attack 0.86 + Santa Ana defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Santa Ana scores more
61%
level
21%
Turrialba Fc scores more
18%

Santa Ana at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Santa Ana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Santa Ana 2–0 Turrialba Fc

Santa Ana beat Turrialba Fc 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on October 7, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Bolaños in Alajuela.