Santa Ana 1–2 Cariari Pococi: Result & Stats

Santa Ana

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Cariari Pococi

8/23/2023

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 6Estadio Rafael Bolaños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Santa Ana50%

×Draw24%

Cariari Pococi26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa AnaExpected goals in this matchCariari Pococi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.21

Santa Ana

1.76

Cariari Pococi

1.21

Santa Ana creates 45% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 107 away

1.72

creates per match

1.23

1.18

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Santa Ana

1.72

Cariari Pococi

1.23

allows per match

Santa Ana

1.18

Cariari Pococi

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

Cariari Pococi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw

74%

Santa Ana or Cariari Pococi

76%

Draw or Cariari Pococi

50%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+

27%

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals

83%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

52%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

26%

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals

70%

Cariari Pococi 2+ goals

34%

Cariari Pococi 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

66%

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.18 · 109 matches

Cariari Pococi away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.72 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.76

Cariari Pococi attack 1.23 + Santa Ana defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Santa Ana scores more

50%

level

24%

Cariari Pococi scores more

26%

Santa Ana at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santa Ana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff