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Sansinena vs Sol de Mayo — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sansinena
Sansinena
CANC
22:00
Sol de Mayo
Sol de Mayo
5/2/2020Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · South - 30Estadio Luis Molina (General Daniel Cerri, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Sansinena51%
×Draw28%
Sol de Mayo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sansinena
1.35
Sol de Mayo
0.76

Sansinena creates 78% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 112 away

creates per match

Sansinena
1.26
Sol de Mayo
0.62

allows per match

Sansinena
0.89
Sol de Mayo
1.44

finishing

Sansinena+0.00on par
Sol de Mayo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sansinena ↓

Sol de Mayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sansinena or draw
79%
Sansinena or Sol de Mayo
72%
Draw or Sol de Mayo
49%

Winning margin

Sansinena wins by 2+
24%
Sol de Mayo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sansinena 1+ goals
74%
Sansinena 2+ goals
39%
Sansinena 3+ goals
15%
Sol de Mayo 1+ goals
53%
Sol de Mayo 2+ goals
18%
Sol de Mayo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sansinena (draw refunded)
71%
Sol de Mayo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sansinena at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 81 matches

Sol de Mayo away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.44 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sansinena attack 1.26 + Sol de Mayo defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sol de Mayo attack 0.62 + Sansinena defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sansinena scores more
51%
level
28%
Sol de Mayo scores more
21%

Sansinena at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sansinena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sansinena host Sol de Mayo

May 2, 2020: Sansinena take on Sol de Mayo in Torneo Federal A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sansinena host Sol de Mayo at Estadio Luis Molina (General Daniel Cerri, Provincia de Buenos Aires).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.