Sanluqueño 0–3 Antequera: Result & Stats

Sanluqueño

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Antequera

Ale García 79'

Rubén Solano 62'

Luismi Redondo 29' (pen)

9/24/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadio El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sanluqueño37%

×Draw28%

Antequera35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SanluqueñoExpected goals in this matchAntequera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.13

Sanluqueño

1.16

Antequera

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 57 away

1.05

creates per match

1.05

1.20

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sanluqueño

1.05

Antequera

1.05

allows per match

Sanluqueño

1.20

Antequera

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanluqueño+0.00on par

Antequera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanluqueño ↓

Antequera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sanluqueño or draw

65%

Sanluqueño or Antequera

72%

Draw or Antequera

63%

Winning margin

Sanluqueño wins by 2+

15%

Antequera wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sanluqueño 1+ goals

69%

Sanluqueño 2+ goals

32%

Sanluqueño 3+ goals

11%

Antequera 1+ goals

68%

Antequera 2+ goals

31%

Antequera 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sanluqueño (draw refunded)

51%

Antequera (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanluqueño at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.20 · 76 matches

Antequera away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanluqueño attack 1.05 + Antequera defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Antequera attack 1.05 + Sanluqueño defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sanluqueño scores more

37%

level

28%

Antequera scores more

35%

Sanluqueño at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sanluqueño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

J. Rojas

29'

Luismi RedondoPenalty

34'

J. Rojas

34'

J. Rojas

37'

D. Rodriguez

46'

Joaquín← Vacas

48'

F. Fomeyem

52'

M. Cordero

56'

Ale Marín← Loren Burón

62'

Rubén Solano

65'

D. Enokpa← Rubén Solano

65'

I. Pais← Alejandro Marcelo

68'

Pablo Arana← Airam Cabrera

76'

Jeremy Jorge← Álex Guti

76'

César Sousa← Luismi Redondo

76'

J. Rydstrand← David Rodríguez

79'

Ale García

84'

Martí Crespí← Fer Román

84'

Nacho Ramón← Cordero

87'

P. Arana

Sanluqueño

Antequera

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Solano

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Antonio Iriondo

46'▲Joaquín←▼Vacas

68'▲Pablo Arana←▼Airam Cabrera

76'▲Jeremy Jorge←▼Álex Guti

84'▲Martí Crespí←▼Fer Román

84'▲Nacho Ramón←▼Cordero

Sanluqueño substitutes

JoaquínAranaJorgeCrespíRamónBastidaFlereNandoLugoPereiraGhailán

Manager: Javier Medina

56'▲Ale Marín←▼Loren Burón

65'▲D. Enokpa←▼Rubén Solano

65'▲I. Pais←▼Alejandro Marcelo

76'▲César Sousa←▼Luismi Redondo

76'▲J. Rydstrand←▼David Rodríguez

Antequera substitutes

MarínEnokpaPaisSousaRydstrandHidalgoDestinyMorenoSpatzConejeroPavónSocorro

Match Recap: Sanluqueño vs Antequera

Antequera beat Sanluqueño 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 24, 2023.

Goals: Luismi Redondo (29' pen), Rubén Solano (62'), Ale García (79').

The match was played at Estadio El Palmar in Sanlúcar de Barrameda.

Sanluqueño vs Antequera — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sanluqueño vs Antequera