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Sanjoanense vs Trofense — Liga 3 2021

Sanjoanense
Sanjoanense
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Trofense
Trofense
11/5/2023Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 10Estádio Conde Dias Garcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sanjoanense39%
×Draw27%
Trofense34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanjoanense
1.27
Trofense
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 44 away

creates per match

Sanjoanense
1.40
Trofense
0.98

allows per match

Sanjoanense
1.34
Trofense
1.14

finishing

Sanjoanense+0.00on par
Trofense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanjoanense ↓

Trofense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sanjoanense or draw
66%
Sanjoanense or Trofense
73%
Draw or Trofense
61%

Winning margin

Sanjoanense wins by 2+
17%
Trofense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sanjoanense 1+ goals
72%
Sanjoanense 2+ goals
36%
Sanjoanense 3+ goals
14%
Trofense 1+ goals
69%
Trofense 2+ goals
32%
Trofense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sanjoanense (draw refunded)
54%
Trofense (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanjoanense at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.34 · 70 matches

Trofense away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanjoanense attack 1.40 + Trofense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Trofense attack 0.98 + Sanjoanense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sanjoanense scores more
39%
level
27%
Trofense scores more
34%

Sanjoanense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sanjoanense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Sanjoanense 3–2 Trofense

Sanjoanense beat Trofense 3-2 in Liga 3 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Conde Dias Garcia in São João da Madeira.