Sanjoanense 0–1 Lusitânia Lourosa: Result & Stats

Sanjoanense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lusitânia Lourosa

8/29/2021

Liga 3 · Round 3Estádio Conde Dias Garcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sanjoanense39%

×Draw27%

Lusitânia Lourosa34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SanjoanenseExpected goals in this matchLusitânia Lourosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.18

Sanjoanense

1.30

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.18

Sanjoanense creates 10% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 46 away

1.40

creates per match

1.02

1.34

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Sanjoanense

1.40

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.02

allows per match

Sanjoanense

1.34

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanjoanense+0.00on par

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanjoanense ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sanjoanense or draw

66%

Sanjoanense or Lusitânia Lourosa

73%

Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa

61%

Winning margin

Sanjoanense wins by 2+

18%

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sanjoanense 1+ goals

73%

Sanjoanense 2+ goals

37%

Sanjoanense 3+ goals

14%

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals

69%

Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals

33%

Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sanjoanense (draw refunded)

54%

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanjoanense at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.34 · 70 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanjoanense attack 1.40 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.02 + Sanjoanense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sanjoanense scores more

39%

level

27%

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more

34%

Sanjoanense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sanjoanense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff