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Sanjoanense vs Felgueiras 1932 — Liga 3 2021

Sanjoanense
Sanjoanense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
8/14/2021Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 1Estádio Conde Dias Garcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sanjoanense34%
×Draw26%
Felgueiras 193239%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanjoanense
1.25
Felgueiras 1932
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 44 away

creates per match

Sanjoanense
1.40
Felgueiras 1932
1.39

allows per match

Sanjoanense
1.34
Felgueiras 1932
1.11

finishing

Sanjoanense+0.00on par
Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanjoanense ↓

Felgueiras 1932 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sanjoanense or draw
61%
Sanjoanense or Felgueiras 1932
74%
Draw or Felgueiras 1932
66%

Winning margin

Sanjoanense wins by 2+
15%
Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sanjoanense 1+ goals
71%
Sanjoanense 2+ goals
36%
Sanjoanense 3+ goals
13%
Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
74%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
39%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sanjoanense (draw refunded)
47%
Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanjoanense at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.34 · 70 matches

Felgueiras 1932 away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanjoanense attack 1.40 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.39 + Sanjoanense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sanjoanense scores more
34%
level
26%
Felgueiras 1932 scores more
39%

Felgueiras 1932 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Felgueiras 1932 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Sanjoanense 0–1 Felgueiras 1932

Felgueiras 1932 beat Sanjoanense 1-0 in Liga 3 on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Conde Dias Garcia in São João da Madeira.