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Sangju Sangmu FC vs Seongnam FC — K League 1 2026

Sangju Sangmu FC
Sangju Sangmu FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Seongnam FC
Seongnam FC
10/27/2019K League 1K League 1 · Relegation Round - 2Sangju Civic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Sangju Sangmu FC42%
×Draw28%
Seongnam FC30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.31
Seongnam FC
1.05

Sangju Sangmu FC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 53 away

creates per match

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.30
Seongnam FC
0.92

allows per match

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.18
Seongnam FC
1.32

finishing

Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par
Seongnam FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sangju Sangmu FC ↓

Seongnam FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sangju Sangmu FC or draw
70%
Sangju Sangmu FC or Seongnam FC
72%
Draw or Seongnam FC
58%

Winning margin

Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+
19%
Seongnam FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals
73%
Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals
38%
Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals
14%
Seongnam FC 1+ goals
65%
Seongnam FC 2+ goals
28%
Seongnam FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
59%
Seongnam FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sangju Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 103 matches

Seongnam FC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.30 + Seongnam FC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Seongnam FC attack 0.92 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sangju Sangmu FC scores more
42%
level
28%
Seongnam FC scores more
30%

Sangju Sangmu FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sangju Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Sangju Sangmu FC 0–1 Seongnam FC

Seongnam FC beat Sangju Sangmu FC 1-0 in K League 1 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Sangju Civic Stadium in Sangju.