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Sangju Sangmu FC vs Jeonnam Dragons — K League 1 2026

Sangju Sangmu FC
Sangju Sangmu FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jeonnam Dragons
Jeonnam Dragons
5/2/2018K League 1K League 1 · Round 11Sangju Stadium (Sangju)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sangju Sangmu FC49%
×Draw26%
Jeonnam Dragons25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.54
Jeonnam Dragons
1.03

Sangju Sangmu FC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.30
Jeonnam Dragons
0.89

allows per match

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.18
Jeonnam Dragons
1.79

finishing

Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par
Jeonnam Dragons+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sangju Sangmu FC ↓

Jeonnam Dragons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sangju Sangmu FC or draw
75%
Sangju Sangmu FC or Jeonnam Dragons
74%
Draw or Jeonnam Dragons
51%

Winning margin

Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+
25%
Jeonnam Dragons wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals
79%
Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals
45%
Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals
20%
Jeonnam Dragons 1+ goals
64%
Jeonnam Dragons 2+ goals
28%
Jeonnam Dragons 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
66%
Jeonnam Dragons (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sangju Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 103 matches

Jeonnam Dragons away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.30 + Jeonnam Dragons defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Jeonnam Dragons attack 0.89 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sangju Sangmu FC scores more
49%
level
26%
Jeonnam Dragons scores more
25%

Sangju Sangmu FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sangju Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Sangju Sangmu FC 1–1 Jeonnam Dragons

Sangju Sangmu FC and Jeonnam Dragons drew 1-1 in K League 1 on May 2, 2018.

The match was played at Sangju Stadium (Sangju).