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Sangju Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors — K League 1 2026

Sangju Sangmu FC
Sangju Sangmu FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motors
7/22/2018K League 1K League 1 · Round 19Sangju Stadium (Sangju)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Sangju Sangmu FC32%
×Draw27%
Jeonbuk Motors41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.12
Jeonbuk Motors
1.32

Jeonbuk Motors creates 18% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 139 away

creates per match

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.30
Jeonbuk Motors
1.47

allows per match

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.18
Jeonbuk Motors
0.94

finishing

Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par
Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sangju Sangmu FC ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sangju Sangmu FC or draw
59%
Sangju Sangmu FC or Jeonbuk Motors
73%
Draw or Jeonbuk Motors
68%

Winning margin

Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+
13%
Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals
67%
Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals
31%
Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals
10%
Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
73%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
38%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
43%
Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sangju Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 103 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.94 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.30 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.12

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.47 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sangju Sangmu FC scores more
32%
level
27%
Jeonbuk Motors scores more
41%

Jeonbuk Motors at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Sangju Sangmu FC 0–2 Jeonbuk Motors

Jeonbuk Motors beat Sangju Sangmu FC 2-0 in K League 1 on July 22, 2018.

The match was played at Sangju Stadium (Sangju).