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Sangju Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul — K League 1 2026

Sangju Sangmu FC
Sangju Sangmu FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Seoul
FC Seoul
12/1/2018K League 1K League 1 · Relegation Round - 5Sangju Stadium (Sangju)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Sangju Sangmu FC39%
×Draw27%
FC Seoul34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.29
FC Seoul
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 139 away

creates per match

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.30
FC Seoul
1.18

allows per match

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.18
FC Seoul
1.28

finishing

Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par
FC Seoul+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sangju Sangmu FC ↓

FC Seoul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sangju Sangmu FC or draw
66%
Sangju Sangmu FC or FC Seoul
73%
Draw or FC Seoul
61%

Winning margin

Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+
17%
FC Seoul wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals
72%
Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals
37%
Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals
14%
FC Seoul 1+ goals
69%
FC Seoul 2+ goals
33%
FC Seoul 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
54%
FC Seoul (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sangju Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 103 matches

FC Seoul away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.28 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.30 + FC Seoul defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

FC Seoul attack 1.18 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sangju Sangmu FC scores more
39%
level
27%
FC Seoul scores more
34%

Sangju Sangmu FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sangju Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sangju Sangmu FC vs FC Seoul

Sangju Sangmu FC beat FC Seoul 1-0 in K League 1 on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Sangju Stadium (Sangju).