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Sangju Sangmu FC vs Daegu FC — K League 1 2026

Sangju Sangmu FC
Sangju Sangmu FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Daegu FC
Daegu FC
7/11/2018K League 1K League 1 · Round 16Sangju Stadium (Sangju)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Sangju Sangmu FC43%
×Draw26%
Daegu FC31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.43
Daegu FC
1.17

Sangju Sangmu FC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 130 away

creates per match

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.30
Daegu FC
1.15

allows per match

Sangju Sangmu FC
1.18
Daegu FC
1.55

finishing

Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par
Daegu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sangju Sangmu FC ↓

Daegu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sangju Sangmu FC or draw
69%
Sangju Sangmu FC or Daegu FC
74%
Draw or Daegu FC
57%

Winning margin

Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+
21%
Daegu FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals
76%
Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals
42%
Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals
17%
Daegu FC 1+ goals
69%
Daegu FC 2+ goals
33%
Daegu FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
58%
Daegu FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sangju Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 103 matches

Daegu FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.55 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.30 + Daegu FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Daegu FC attack 1.15 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sangju Sangmu FC scores more
43%
level
26%
Daegu FC scores more
31%

Sangju Sangmu FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sangju Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Sangju Sangmu FC 0–1 Daegu FC

Daegu FC beat Sangju Sangmu FC 1-0 in K League 1 on July 11, 2018.

The match was played at Sangju Stadium (Sangju).