Sanga Balende 3–0 Panda B5: Result & Stats

Sanga Balende

FT

3 – 0

Panda B5

11/14/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade Kashala Bonzola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sanga Balende59%

×Draw25%

Panda B516%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sanga BalendeExpected goals in this matchPanda B5

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.66

Sanga Balende

1.57

Panda B5

0.66

Sanga Balende creates 138% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 52 away

1.17

creates per match

0.40

0.92

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Sanga Balende

1.17

Panda B5

0.40

allows per match

Sanga Balende

0.92

Panda B5

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanga Balende+0.00on par

Panda B5+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanga Balende ↓

Panda B5 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sanga Balende or draw

84%

Sanga Balende or Panda B5

75%

Draw or Panda B5

41%

Winning margin

Sanga Balende wins by 2+

32%

Panda B5 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sanga Balende 1+ goals

79%

Sanga Balende 2+ goals

46%

Sanga Balende 3+ goals

21%

Panda B5 1+ goals

48%

Panda B5 2+ goals

14%

Panda B5 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sanga Balende (draw refunded)

79%

Panda B5 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanga Balende at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.92 · 78 matches

Panda B5 away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanga Balende attack 1.17 + Panda B5 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.57

Panda B5 attack 0.40 + Sanga Balende defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sanga Balende scores more

59%

level

25%

Panda B5 scores more

16%

Sanga Balende at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sanga Balende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff