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Sanga Balende vs Groupe Bazano — Ligue 1 2019

Sanga Balende
Sanga Balende
FT
0 – 1
Groupe Bazano
Groupe Bazano
2/9/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 15Stade Kashala Bonzola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Sanga Balende46%
×Draw30%
Groupe Bazano25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanga Balende
1.22
Groupe Bazano
0.81

Sanga Balende creates 51% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 73 away

creates per match

Sanga Balende
1.17
Groupe Bazano
0.70

allows per match

Sanga Balende
0.92
Groupe Bazano
1.27

finishing

Sanga Balende+0.00on par
Groupe Bazano+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanga Balende ↓

Groupe Bazano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sanga Balende or draw
75%
Sanga Balende or Groupe Bazano
70%
Draw or Groupe Bazano
54%

Winning margin

Sanga Balende wins by 2+
20%
Groupe Bazano wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sanga Balende 1+ goals
70%
Sanga Balende 2+ goals
34%
Sanga Balende 3+ goals
12%
Groupe Bazano 1+ goals
56%
Groupe Bazano 2+ goals
19%
Groupe Bazano 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sanga Balende (draw refunded)
65%
Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanga Balende at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.92 · 78 matches

Groupe Bazano away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.27 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanga Balende attack 1.17 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.22

Groupe Bazano attack 0.70 + Sanga Balende defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sanga Balende scores more
46%
level
30%
Groupe Bazano scores more
25%

Sanga Balende at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sanga Balende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Sanga Balende 0–1 Groupe Bazano

Groupe Bazano beat Sanga Balende 1-0 in Ligue 1 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Kashala Bonzola in Mbuji-Mayi.