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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga — J1 League 2018

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Preview
05:00
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
10/17/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 10Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima
Big match
45%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
model favours
45%27%28%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima have scored in 15 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima45%
×Draw27%
Kyoto Sanga28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.42
Kyoto Sanga
1.05

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 35% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 80 away

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.52
Kyoto Sanga
1.16

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.95
Kyoto Sanga
1.32

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw
72%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Kyoto Sanga
73%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
55%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
22%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
76%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
41%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
17%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
65%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
28%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
62%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.95 · 149 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.52 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.42

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.16 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
45%
level
27%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
28%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kyoto Sanga score first in only 27% of matches
  • 73% of Kyoto Sanga’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (60% and 73% over 2.5)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Defensively solid
Kyoto Sanga
Balanced
50%Possession51%
74%Pass accuracy71%
16.8Shots12.8
1.49xGBiggest gap1.13
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sanfrecce HiroshimaKyoto Sanga

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
Draws
4
Kyoto Sanga
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 50%
4–01–21–10–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Hiroshima
WLWW
Sanga
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sanfrecce Hiroshima host Kyoto Sanga

October 17, 2026: Sanfrecce Hiroshima take on Kyoto Sanga in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima host Kyoto Sanga at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.