Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs JEF United Chiba

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Preview

10:15

JEF United Chiba

8/8/2026

J1 League · Round 1Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima

52%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

model favours

52%25%23%

JEF United Chiba score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

54%

under 2.5 goals

49%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima52%

×Draw25%

JEF United Chiba23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sanfrecce HiroshimaExpected goals in this matchJEF United Chiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.96

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.57

JEF United Chiba

0.96

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 64% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 9 away

1.26

creates per match

1.11

0.81

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.26

JEF United Chiba

1.11

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0.81

JEF United Chiba

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

JEF United Chiba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

JEF United Chiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw

77%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or JEF United Chiba

75%

Draw or JEF United Chiba

48%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

27%

JEF United Chiba wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

79%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

46%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

21%

JEF United Chiba 1+ goals

62%

JEF United Chiba 2+ goals

25%

JEF United Chiba 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

69%

JEF United Chiba (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

JEF United Chiba away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.26 + JEF United Chiba defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.57

JEF United Chiba attack 1.11 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

52%

level

25%

JEF United Chiba scores more

23%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Sanfrecce Hiroshima have scored in 15 games running
Sanfrecce Hiroshima and JEF United Chiba have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Defensively solid

JEF United Chiba

Balanced

50%Possession47%

74%Pass accuracy79%

16.8ShotsBiggest gap10.1

1.49xG1.13

Sanfrecce HiroshimaJEF United Chiba

Head-to-head

First-ever meeting

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Hiroshima

WLWW

Chiba

LDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff