Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sandviken W vs Umeå W — Elitettan 2021

Sandviken W
Sandviken W
Preview
12:00
Umeå W
Umeå W
9/26/2026ElitettanElitettan · Round 20
70%
Umeå W
model favours
14%16%70%
1–2
likely score
73%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sandviken W14%
×Draw16%
Umeå W70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandviken W
1.13
Umeå W
2.69

Umeå W creates 138% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 57 away

creates per match

Sandviken W
1.00
Umeå W
2.18

allows per match

Sandviken W
3.20
Umeå W
1.26

finishing

Sandviken W+0.00on par
Umeå W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandviken W ↓

Umeå W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sandviken W or draw
30%
Sandviken W or Umeå W
84%
Draw or Umeå W
86%

Winning margin

Sandviken W wins by 2+
5%
Umeå W wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Sandviken W 1+ goals
68%
Sandviken W 2+ goals
31%
Sandviken W 3+ goals
11%
Umeå W 1+ goals
93%
Umeå W 2+ goals
74%
Umeå W 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Sandviken W (draw refunded)
17%
Umeå W (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandviken W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Umeå W away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.26 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandviken W attack 1.00 + Umeå W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Umeå W attack 2.18 + Sandviken W defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sandviken W scores more
14%
level
16%
Umeå W scores more
70%

Umeå W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Umeå W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LLDLL
W
LLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sandviken W face Umeå W (Elitettan)

Elitettan returns with Sandviken W hosting Umeå W. Match starts September 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.