Sandnes ULF 1–0 Sogndal: Result & Stats

Sandnes ULF

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sogndal

S. Kapidzic 62'

10/7/2018

1. Division · Round 26Sandnes Idrettspark (Sandnes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Sandnes ULF42%

×Draw24%

Sogndal34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sandnes ULFExpected goals in this matchSogndal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.45

Sandnes ULF

1.64

Sogndal

1.45

Sandnes ULF creates 13% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 114 away

1.69

creates per match

1.33

1.57

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Sandnes ULF

1.69

Sogndal

1.33

allows per match

Sandnes ULF

1.57

Sogndal

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sandnes ULF+0.00on par

Sogndal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandnes ULF ↓

Sogndal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sandnes ULF or draw

66%

Sandnes ULF or Sogndal

76%

Draw or Sogndal

58%

Winning margin

Sandnes ULF wins by 2+

21%

Sogndal wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sandnes ULF 1+ goals

81%

Sandnes ULF 2+ goals

49%

Sandnes ULF 3+ goals

23%

Sogndal 1+ goals

77%

Sogndal 2+ goals

42%

Sogndal 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Sandnes ULF (draw refunded)

55%

Sogndal (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandnes ULF at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.57 · 96 matches

Sogndal away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandnes ULF attack 1.69 + Sogndal defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.64

Sogndal attack 1.33 + Sandnes ULF defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sandnes ULF scores more

42%

level

24%

Sogndal scores more

34%

Sandnes ULF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sandnes ULF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

R. Johansen← V. Erlien

61'

A. Adams← S. Mandić

62'

S. Kapidzic

65'

J. Soltvedt← S. Jensen

74'

B. Riise← U. Fredriksen

90+1'

H. Kleppa← K. Brix

Sandnes

Sogndal

1

5

2

15

31

▼

29

8

7

24

▼

Jensen

10

▼

18

92

14

22

4

18

24

▼

6

7

11

15

▼

Erlien

10

⚽

Kapidzic

Manager: B. Sæternes

46'▲R. Johansen←▼V. Erlien

90+1'▲H. Kleppa←▼K. Brix

Sandnes ULF substitutes

8Johansen21Kleppa2Akinyemi9Ugwuadu12Komelciks20Dybevik

Manager: E. Bakke

61'▲A. Adams←▼S. Mandić

65'▲J. Soltvedt←▼S. Jensen

74'▲B. Riise←▼U. Fredriksen

Sogndal substitutes

28Adams30Soltvedt6Riise4Wæhler21Rutlin22Kjemhus26Fredriksen