Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sandhausen U19 vs Heidenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Sandhausen U19
Sandhausen U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Heidenheim U19
Heidenheim U19
9/24/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 6Walter-Reinhard-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sandhausen U1938%
×Draw22%
Heidenheim U1940%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandhausen U19
1.73
Heidenheim U19
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 71 away

creates per match

Sandhausen U19
1.87
Heidenheim U19
1.68

allows per match

Sandhausen U19
1.89
Heidenheim U19
1.58

finishing

Sandhausen U19+0.00on par
Heidenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandhausen U19 ↓

Heidenheim U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Sandhausen U19 or draw
60%
Sandhausen U19 or Heidenheim U19
78%
Draw or Heidenheim U19
62%

Winning margin

Sandhausen U19 wins by 2+
19%
Heidenheim U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sandhausen U19 1+ goals
82%
Sandhausen U19 2+ goals
52%
Sandhausen U19 3+ goals
25%
Heidenheim U19 1+ goals
83%
Heidenheim U19 2+ goals
53%
Heidenheim U19 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Sandhausen U19 (draw refunded)
49%
Heidenheim U19 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandhausen U19 at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

Heidenheim U19 away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.58 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandhausen U19 attack 1.87 + Heidenheim U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.73

Heidenheim U19 attack 1.68 + Sandhausen U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sandhausen U19 scores more
38%
level
22%
Heidenheim U19 scores more
40%

Heidenheim U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Heidenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sandhausen U19 2 – 0 Heidenheim U19

Sandhausen U19 beat Heidenheim U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Walter-Reinhard-Stadion in Sandhausen.