Sandefjord 2–0 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Sandefjord

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stromsgodset

F. Ottosson 89'

B. Sørmo 58' (OG)

9/16/2023

Eliteserien · Round 22Jotun Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Sandefjord48%

×Draw24%

Stromsgodset28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SandefjordExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.27

Sandefjord

1.74

Stromsgodset

1.27

Sandefjord creates 37% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

1.35

creates per match

1.10

1.44

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Sandefjord

1.35

Stromsgodset

1.10

allows per match

Sandefjord

1.44

Stromsgodset

2.13

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Sandefjord+0.40scores more

Stromsgodset+0.08on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandefjord ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sandefjord or draw

72%

Sandefjord or Stromsgodset

76%

Draw or Stromsgodset

52%

Winning margin

Sandefjord wins by 2+

26%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sandefjord 1+ goals

82%

Sandefjord 2+ goals

52%

Sandefjord 3+ goals

25%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

72%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

36%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sandefjord (draw refunded)

63%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandefjord at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.13 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandefjord attack 1.35 + Stromsgodset defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.74

Stromsgodset attack 1.10 + Sandefjord defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sandefjord scores more

48%

level

24%

Stromsgodset scores more

28%

Sandefjord at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sandefjord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

F. Ottosson

Sandefjord · M

8.3

Match Events

58'

B. SørmoOwn goal

60'

M. Mehnert← H. Stenevik

65'

L. Tómasson← T. Grøgaard

73'

J. Kjær← S. Mørk

74'

A. Tveter← F. Nyenetue

78'

O. Enersen← E. Melkersen

78'

K. Krasniqi← E. Danso

88'

Fredrik Kristensen Dahl

89'

F. Ottosson

90+4'

Y. Chaib← D. Al-Saed

90+2'

K. Ayer← A. Damnjanovic Nilsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SandefjordStromsgodset

Overview

53%Possession47%

15Total Shots15

1.48Expected Goals (xG)1.74

3Corners4

3Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots15

4On Target5

5Off Target6

6Blocked4

10Inside Box11

5Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

487Total Passes438

401Accurate Passes333

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

3Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Eliteserien: Sandefjord 2–0 Stromsgodset

Sandefjord beat Stromsgodset 2-0 in Eliteserien on September 16, 2023.

Goals: B. Sørmo (58' o.g.), F. Ottosson (89').

Sandefjord controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 15.

The match was played at Jotun Arena in Sandefjord.

Sandefjord vs Stromsgodset — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Sandefjord 2–0 Stromsgodset