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San Miguel vs Dock Sud — Primera C 2026

San Miguel
San Miguel
FT
3 – 2
Dock Sud
Dock Sud
9/25/2016Primera CPrimera C · Round 5Estadio Malvinas Argentinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

San Miguel48%
×Draw27%
Dock Sud25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Miguel
1.44
Dock Sud
0.97

San Miguel creates 48% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 75 away

creates per match

San Miguel
1.75
Dock Sud
1.20

allows per match

San Miguel
0.75
Dock Sud
1.12

finishing

San Miguel+0.00on par
Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Miguel ↓

Dock Sud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

San Miguel or draw
75%
San Miguel or Dock Sud
73%
Draw or Dock Sud
52%

Winning margin

San Miguel wins by 2+
24%
Dock Sud wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

San Miguel 1+ goals
76%
San Miguel 2+ goals
42%
San Miguel 3+ goals
18%
Dock Sud 1+ goals
62%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
25%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

San Miguel (draw refunded)
65%
Dock Sud (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Miguel at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Miguel attack 1.75 + Dock Sud defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dock Sud attack 1.20 + San Miguel defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Miguel scores more
48%
level
27%
Dock Sud scores more
25%

San Miguel at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "San Miguel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Miguel vs Dock Sud

San Miguel beat Dock Sud 3-2 in Primera C on September 25, 2016.

The match was played at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas in Los Polvorines, Provincia de Buenos Aires.