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San Martín vs Tuilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

San Martín
San Martín
CANC
00:00
Tuilla
Tuilla
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Estadio El Florán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

San Martín41%
×Draw28%
Tuilla31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martín
1.26
Tuilla
1.06

San Martín creates 19% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 110 away

creates per match

San Martín
1.07
Tuilla
1.17

allows per match

San Martín
0.96
Tuilla
1.45

finishing

San Martín+0.00on par
Tuilla+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martín ↓

Tuilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Martín or draw
69%
San Martín or Tuilla
72%
Draw or Tuilla
59%

Winning margin

San Martín wins by 2+
18%
Tuilla wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Martín 1+ goals
72%
San Martín 2+ goals
36%
San Martín 3+ goals
13%
Tuilla 1+ goals
65%
Tuilla 2+ goals
29%
Tuilla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

San Martín (draw refunded)
57%
Tuilla (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martín at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 80 matches

Tuilla away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martín attack 1.07 + Tuilla defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.26

Tuilla attack 1.17 + San Martín defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

San Martín scores more
41%
level
28%
Tuilla scores more
31%

San Martín at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "San Martín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Martín vs Tuilla — Match Preview

San Martín face Tuilla on March 22, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

San Martín host Tuilla at Estadio El Florán.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.