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San Martín vs Praviano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

San Martín
San Martín
CANC
00:00
Praviano
Praviano
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 35Estadio El Florán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

San Martín38%
×Draw29%
Praviano34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martín
1.15
Praviano
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 113 away

creates per match

San Martín
1.07
Praviano
1.18

allows per match

San Martín
0.96
Praviano
1.23

finishing

San Martín+0.00on par
Praviano+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martín ↓

Praviano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

San Martín or draw
66%
San Martín or Praviano
71%
Draw or Praviano
62%

Winning margin

San Martín wins by 2+
16%
Praviano wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

San Martín 1+ goals
68%
San Martín 2+ goals
32%
San Martín 3+ goals
11%
Praviano 1+ goals
66%
Praviano 2+ goals
29%
Praviano 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

San Martín (draw refunded)
53%
Praviano (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martín at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 80 matches

Praviano away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martín attack 1.07 + Praviano defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Praviano attack 1.18 + San Martín defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

San Martín scores more
38%
level
29%
Praviano scores more
34%

San Martín at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Martín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Martín face Praviano (Tercera División RFEF - Group 2)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 returns with San Martín hosting Praviano. Match starts April 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

San Martín host Praviano at Estadio El Florán.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.