Kabuscorp 2–3 Progresso: Result & Stats | Girabola

Kabuscorp

FT

2 – 3

Progresso

10/12/2013

Girabola · Round 27Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Kabuscorp56%

×Draw26%

Progresso18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KabuscorpExpected goals in this matchProgresso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.73

Kabuscorp

1.52

Progresso

0.73

Kabuscorp creates 108% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 54 away

1.30

creates per match

0.61

0.85

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Kabuscorp

1.30

Progresso

0.61

allows per match

Kabuscorp

0.85

Progresso

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kabuscorp+0.00on par

Progresso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabuscorp ↓

Progresso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kabuscorp or draw

82%

Kabuscorp or Progresso

74%

Draw or Progresso

44%

Winning margin

Kabuscorp wins by 2+

29%

Progresso wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kabuscorp 1+ goals

78%

Kabuscorp 2+ goals

45%

Kabuscorp 3+ goals

20%

Progresso 1+ goals

52%

Progresso 2+ goals

17%

Progresso 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Kabuscorp (draw refunded)

76%

Progresso (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabuscorp at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.85 · 73 matches

Progresso away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.74 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabuscorp attack 1.30 + Progresso defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Progresso attack 0.61 + Kabuscorp defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kabuscorp scores more

56%

level

26%

Progresso scores more

18%

Kabuscorp at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kabuscorp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff