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San Martin Tucuman vs Temperley — Primera Nacional 2026

San Martin Tucuman
San Martin Tucuman
Preview
22:00
Temperley
Temperley
7/25/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 22Estadio La Ciudadela
Big match
47%
San Martin Tucuman
model favours
47%31%22%

Temperley are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
73%
under 2.5 goals
34%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

San Martin Tucuman47%
×Draw31%
Temperley22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martin Tucuman
1.14
Temperley
0.68

San Martin Tucuman creates 68% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 128 away

creates per match

San Martin Tucuman
1.25
Temperley
0.78

allows per match

San Martin Tucuman
0.57
Temperley
1.02

finishing

San Martin Tucuman+0.00on par
Temperley+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin Tucuman ↓

Temperley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

San Martin Tucuman or draw
78%
San Martin Tucuman or Temperley
69%
Draw or Temperley
53%

Winning margin

San Martin Tucuman wins by 2+
20%
Temperley wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

San Martin Tucuman 1+ goals
68%
San Martin Tucuman 2+ goals
32%
San Martin Tucuman 3+ goals
11%
Temperley 1+ goals
49%
Temperley 2+ goals
15%
Temperley 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

San Martin Tucuman (draw refunded)
68%
Temperley (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin Tucuman at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.57 · 117 matches

Temperley away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.02 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin Tucuman attack 1.25 + Temperley defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Temperley attack 0.78 + San Martin Tucuman defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

San Martin Tucuman scores more
47%
level
31%
Temperley scores more
22%

San Martin Tucuman at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "San Martin Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 69% of Temperley’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 31% of Temperley’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tucuman
DWWDL
Temperley
WDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Martin Tucuman face Temperley (Primera Nacional)

Primera Nacional returns with San Martin Tucuman hosting Temperley. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

San Martin Tucuman host Temperley at Estadio La Ciudadela.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.